RFP/EP/AP/2026/00001

Annex 1-Terms of Reference (TOR)

Procurement of Consultancy Firm for Market Assessment of Energy Sector Innovations in Gilgit Baltistan and Chitral

1. Background

Accelerate Prosperity (AP) is a joint initiative of the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) and Industrial Promotion Services (IPS) of the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED) in Central and South Asia. It aspires to work towards a society that is powered by innovative and successful young entrepreneurs. Through its services, AP extends tailored training, advice, and technical assistance to aspiring and existing entrepreneurs to help them launch or expand their innovative business ventures. It also extends tailored financing to start-ups and SGBs to help them unlock external investments by improving their bankability and investment readiness.

2. Program Overview

AP’s approach combines financial and non-financial support, recognizing that standalone business development services and traditional bank financing are inadequate to catalyze early-stage and growth stage businesses, and deliver job creation in fragile and emerging markets, particularly for marginalized groups in rural areas.

This research study is funded by the European Union under Energy Plus, a programme that seeks to promote renewable energy solutions, enhance natural resources management, and support rural communities to build climate resilience. This study particularly aims to strengthen AP’s ability to provide tailored training, advisory, and investment support to early-stage and growth-stage businesses in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral (GBC). AP plays a pivotal role in reaching and strengthening enterprises and enterprise groups in the sector, directly contributing to the livelihood of local communities.

3. About the Position

The study will provide a detailed market assessment, adding to AP’s understanding and supporting the efforts to guide entrepreneurs working in the Energy Sector and its supply chain in implementing innovative and sustainable solutions.

4. Scope of Work

Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral have a dispersed, terrain-constrained energy ecosystem with strong dependence on distributed energy systems such as hydropower based micro-utility companies, solar PV installations, backup power systems (diesel-based generation), and localized electricity distribution networks. However, the availability, sourcing, pricing, and servicing of equipment required across the energy value chain remains fragmented and underdeveloped.

This market assessment aims to evaluate the overall energy equipment supply chain market, analyze demand across key customer segments (households, hotels, micro-utilities, commercial users), and determine market size to identify scalable entrepreneurial opportunities within the supply chain.

Objectives

1. Map the energy sector equipment supply chain ecosystem in GB, and overall energy generation and transmission in Chitral.
2. Assess product and equipment demand across customer segments.
3. Evaluate availability, sourcing, pricing, and distribution channels.
4. Estimate Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) in the target regions.
5. Identify high-potential investment and innovation opportunities in the supply chain.
6. Assess gaps in logistics, storage/warehousing, after-sales service, and technical support.

Supply Chain Ecosystem Mapping

The assessment shall:

• Map all supply chain actors including importers (Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar-based), regional distributors, local retailers in Gilgit, Skardu, Chitral, technicians & installers, O&M service providers/workshops, transport/logistics operators, Spare part vendors
• Analyze product flow:
• Where are equipment and spare parts sourced from?
• Are products imported?
• Are there any local assembly units?
• What is stocked locally vs ordered on demand?
• Identify supply chain bottlenecks:
• Long lead times
• High transport costs
• Seasonal access constraints
• Working capital constraints
• Lack of warehousing

Demand Assessment by Customer Segment

The consultants team will conduct structured demand analysis for the following segments:

1.1  Household Segment: Assess demand for energy e.g., MHPs, solar home systems, inverters & UPS systems, Batteries (lead-acid, lithium), Voltage stabilizers, Smart meters, Wiring & protection systems and Backup solutions etc

Key analysis areas include, Total number of electrified households, Households using hybrid/solar systems, Replacement cycle for batteries/inverters, Average annual spending on energy equipment, Seasonal demand patterns (winter load issues) and Willingness to adopt smart solutions.

1.2 Hotel & Tourism Sector: Given tourism growth in GBC, assess demand for commercial solar systems, Battery storage systems, Voltage regulation systems, Load management equipment, Energy-efficient appliances, Smart energy monitoring systems.

Key analysis areas include, Number of hotels & guest houses, Energy backup expenditure trends, Growth rate of hospitality sector, High-consumption cluster mapping (Hunza, Skardu, Chitral, etc.) and Willingness to invest in cost-saving technologies.

1.3  Utility Companies (Micro & Private Utilities) Focus on: Transformers, Cables & transmission equipment, Switchgear, Control panels, Smart meters, monitoring equipment, Protection systems and Spare parts inventory etc.

Key Analysis Areas: Number of micro-utilities, Annual maintenance expenditure, Equipment replacement frequency, Spare parts sourcing patterns, Downtime caused by supply chain delays and Budget constraints & procurement methods

1.4  Commercial & SME Segment: Shops & markets, small manufacturing units, Cold storage and Agriculture processing units etc. Assess demand for, Backup systems, Stabilizers, Smart meters and Load management solutions.

Market Size Estimation (TAM, SAM, SOM)

The assessment shall calculate Total Addressable Market for high potential products/services, along with growth projections, Serviceable Available Market (portion of TAM realistically serviceable by regional suppliers), adjusted for geographic accessibility, purchasing power, regulatory constraints and distribution capacity. And Serviceable Obtainable Market, Market share realistically capturable by new entrepreneurs based on competitive landscape, capital requirements, logistics constraints and pricing competitiveness.

Competitive Landscape Analysis

The consultants shall identify major suppliers in Gilgit, Skardu, Chitral (supplying region) and Compare product variety, price margins, warranty systems, after-sales service, credit availability and identify monopoly or oligopoly patterns (if any).

Innovation & Supply Chain Opportunities

The assessment should identify business opportunities such as:

• Regional energy equipment warehousing hubs
• Battery recycling & refurbishment units
• Local control panel assembly units
• Smart metering distribution companies
• Mobile O&M service companies
• Digital inventory and spare parts tracking systems
• Equipment leasing models for hotels & utilities
• Financing-linked equipment supply models
• Other innovation or opportunity which maybe seen in the area- and also understanding innovations in other comparable markets / regions

Each opportunity should include investment range, revenue model, target customer and risk profile.

5. Methodology

The consultancy firm /entity/consultants are required to submit a detailed technical proposal that demonstrates their understanding of this assignment, as outlined in the terms of reference. The proposal must include a comprehensive research methodology, with a sampling approach and sample size that are justified based on initial preliminary analysis. This approach should ensure that the sample is representative and captures the diversity of insights necessary to reflect the sector and market challenges in the Gilgit Baltistan and Chitral regions, both holistically and within specific districts.

The research will be conducted using a mixed-method approach, with a focus on primary data collection supplemented by secondary data sources.

Primary Data (40%)

Surveys, Key Informant Interviews, Market price benchmarking, Supplier interview

Secondary Data (60%)

Tourism department data, Utility registries, Import/export data, Industry reports, Energy feasibility studies conducted under the project

6. Contract Duration

 The timeline for completion of the engagements is expected to be 3 months from the start.

7. Location

Remote

8. Deliverables

• Inception Report – Including review of existing literature, approach & methodology for the assignment, and proposed instruments for data collection
• Draft Market Assessment Report, including supply chain map, demand segmentation analysis, competitive landscape matrix, entrepreneur opportunity briefs, case studies.
• Presentation: Prepare a presentation summarizing the key findings and recommendations for stakeholders.
• Appendices: Include supplementary information, such as survey questionnaires, interview guides, and additional data tables.

• 1-day workshop to present report findings to the AP team

9. Payment Terms

• The financial fee submitted should be inclusive of all travel expenses and taxes.
• Payments will be made within thirty (30) days from the date of submission of a complete and accurate invoice
• Payment will be made after submission of required deliverables, which will be approved by the focal point as per the below schedule:

10. Qualifications and Experience

10.1 Qualification Requirements of Applicant Firm

The consulting firm should have:

• 5–7 years of proven experience in conducting market assessments, feasibility studies, supply chain analyses, and demand studies within the energy sector, including energy systems equipment, mini-grids, micro-hydel projects, solar solutions, and energy access initiatives.
• Prior work in Pakistan, preferably in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, or other remote/mountain regions.
• Experience engaging with private sector, communities, SMEs/startups, and development partners.
• Ability to produce high-quality market assessment reports, investment analysis, and strategic recommendations.

10.2 Qualification Requirements for Team Expertise provided by the consulting firm

• Team Lead / Energy Expert: Master’s degree in energy, engineering, economics; around 5-7 years of experience.
• Market Research Specialist: Experience in market studies, surveys, and business analysis.
• Energy Technology Expert: Knowledge of renewable energy technologies and innovation models.
• Local Field Coordinator: Familiarity with the local context of GBC and field research.
• Financial/Data Analyst: Experience in financial modelling, investment analysis, and data interpretation.
• Experience with energy innovation, entrepreneurship and climate finance.

11. Reporting Line

The consulting Firm will report to the Monitoring Evaluation Research and Data & Insights Lead at Accelerate Prosperity Pakistan.

12. Application Requirements

Interested consulting firms must submit the following:

Mandatory Requirements:

• The applicant firm must provide a certificate of company/firm registration with SECP/relevant regulatory authority and an active taxpayer status.
• The applicant firm is required to sign the RFP document, and it should be submitted along with the proposal.

Technical Proposal

• The applicant firm must submit the company profile that outlines their experience in line with the qualification requirements defined in Section 10.1 of this document. The firm should provide copies/enlist the previous contracts or assignments relevant to the consultancy requirements.

• The applicant firm must have the ability to produce high-quality market assessment reports, investment analysis, and strategic recommendations. Share samples/portfolios/list of previous work done.

• Prior work in Pakistan, preferably in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, or other remote/mountain regions. Experience engaging with the private sector, SMEs/startups, and development partners.  Enlist previous assignments completed.

• The applicant firm should provide complete profiles/CVs, including educational qualifications and professional experience of the team, as defined in Section 10.2 of this document.
• The applicant firms must prepare at least a 2-to 3-page description of the proposed methodology and work plan to execute the assignment.

Financial Proposal

• The financial proposal should be submitted using the attached financial proposal format with a valid signature.
• Detailed breakdown of the total cost of the engagement and the total quote, inclusive of all applicable taxes, travel, and other incidental costs.

13. Evaluation Criteria:

Proposals will be evaluated based on Quality and Cost Based Selection (QCBS) on:

• Technical expertise and experience of the firm (70%)
• Financial competitiveness (30%)